Council for a Livable World Senate Election 2012 Roundup
Last updated February 21, 2012
The latest developments:
Indiana: For the first time, Sen. Lugar (R) runs ads attacking his primary opponent, Richard Mourdock (R), indicating that Mourdock is gaining. Virginia: state Chamber of Commerce is "neutral" in the race; U.S. Chamber of Commerce for Allen (R). Massachusetts: Completing Mass. polls: one has Warren (D) ahead by 3 points, one has Brown (R) ahead by 6 points. Ohio: Quinnipiac Univ. poll has Brown (D) 13 points ahead of Mandel (R). Michigan: Stabenow (D) leads by double digits, 50%-33% over Durant (R) & 51%-37% over Hoekstra (R) - Public Policy Polling - while Detroit News poll has Hoekstra far ahead of Durant. Hawaii: Honolulu Star-Advertiser poll shows Hirono (D) 20 points ahead of both Case (D) in primary and Lingle (R) in general election. Nebraska: U of Nebraska regent Chuck Hassebrook (D) has entered the race. Chamber of Commerce is going up with a big ad buy in MA, MT, WI, VA, IN, HI, MO and ND, for the Republican and/or against the Democrat.The 2012 Senate contests are as uncertain as ever. There are a number of close contests, and the race for President also remains unsettled but will influence the Senate races. It remains impossible to make realistic predictions about the outcome.
The key numbers:
-->21 Democrat seats are up for election in 2012 plus two independents who caucus with the Democrats.
-->There are only 10 seats for the Republicans to defend.
The closest Senate contests (and most likely nominees)
Massachusetts - Elizabeth Warren (D) vs. Scott Brown (R)
Missouri – McCaskill (D) vs. ?
Montana – Tester (D) vs. Rehberg (R)
Nevada – Berkley (D) vs. Heller (R)
Virginia – Kaine (D) vs. Allen (R)
Wisconsin - Baldwin (D) vs. ?
The next closest Senate contests
Arizona - ? vs. ?
Connecticut - ? vs. ?
Florida – Bill Nelson (D) vs. ?
Hawaii - ? vs. Lingle (R)
New Mexico - ? vs. Wilson (R)
North Dakota- Heitkamp (D) vs. Berg (R)
Ohio – Sherrod Brown (D) vs. Mandel (R)
Council for a Livable World Senate endorsements for 2012
Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI)
Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-NV)
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH)
Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA)
Rep. Martin Heinrich (D-NM)
Rep. Mazie Hirono (D-HI)
Gov. Tim Kaine (D-VA)
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)
Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI)
Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT)
Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)
Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI)
Arizona: The Grand Canyon state could be a battleground state in the presidential election and the Senate as well. Incumbent Sen. Jon Kyl (R) has announced his retirement. Both parties may come up with strong nominees. Rep. Jeff Flake (R) was the first candidate to declare, but he is getting a primary challenge from wealthy developer Wil Cardon (R). Don Bivens (D), a former chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party, and former Surgeon General Richard Carmona (D) are competing for the Democratic nomination.
California: Republicans ran two strong candidates for governor and Senator in 2010, but both lost handily. If Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) could win re-election by 10 points in 2010, her colleague Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) will be even more heavily favored despite the fact that she turns 79 in 2012. Her major problem is that her campaign treasurer absconded with her funds and those of others.
Connecticut: This state should produce one of the major battles of 2012. Four-term incumbent Sen. Joseph Lieberman (I) announced that he will retire after completing his current term. With this news, the Democrats have been given a tremendous opportunity to pick up a new seat. Former CT Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz (D), U.S. Rep. Chris Murphy (D) and state Rep. William Tong (D) have announced their plans to run for the seat. Democrats are holding a nominating convention on May 12. Former Rep. Chris Shays (R) faces wealthy businesswoman and former Senate nominee Linda McMahon (R) in a primary.
Delaware: Two-term incumbent Sen. Tom Carper (D) in great political shape and should have no trouble winning re-election. His margin of victory in 2006 was 41 points.
Florida: Republicans are gunning for two-term incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson (D), the Democrats last statewide official. Republicans made major gains in the state in the 2010 election, including four new House seats, and hope to extend their winning streak. Early polls show Nelson ahead, but not comfortably. Former Sen. George LeMieux (R), retired Col and ex-candidate for Governor Mike McCalister (R) and Rep. Connie Mack (R) have announced they are running.
Hawaii: Hawaii remains a strongly Democratic state. Three-term Sen. Daniel Akaka (D) has announced his retirement, leaving an open contest to replace him. Former Governor Linda Lingle (R) is running, but polls show Democrats running ahead of her. Rep. Mazie Hirono (D) and former Rep. Ed Case (D) are competing. Polls show Hirono ahead in both the primary and general election.[Council for a Livable World has endorsed and fundraised for Hirono]
Indiana: Incumbent Senator Richard Lugar (R) has been in office since 1976, and is running again. The state is strongly Republican, and the GOP captured a Democratic Senate seat in 2010 by 15 points. The only way that Lugar loses is by a challenge from his right by a Tea Party candidate. State Treasurer Richard Mourdock (R) has claimed that mantle. But Lugar has a 10 - 1 fundraising advantage. Rep. Joe Donnelly (D is running in the hope that Lugar is knocked off in a primary and Mourdock is easier to beat. The primary is May 8.
Maine: Tea Party businessman Scott D'Amboise (R) is challenging the terminally moderate Sen. Olympia Snowe (R). In a general election, she is unbeatable. She is popular among independents and many Democrats. While early polling showed the Republican Party disaffected with her, she has largely recovered her popularity. Ex-Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap (D), State Senator Cynthia Dill (D) and State Rep. Jon Hinck (D) are running,
Maryland: This state remained firmly blue in the 2010 election and incumbent Sen. Ben Cardin (D) should easily win re-election. He does have primary opposition from state Sen. C. Anthony Muse (D). His Republican challenger is ex-Secret Service agent Daniel Bongino (R).
Massachusetts: This heavily Democratic state shocked the political world with the January 2010 special election when it elected Sen. Scott Brown (R) in a harbinger of GOP victories to come. However, Democrats scored solid wins in the Bay State later in 2010, and are salivating over one of their few pick-up opportunities in 2012. Still, Brown has a strong favorable rating and had $12.9 million in his campaign treasury. Former White House official Elizabeth Warren (D) is running strong. Polls show Warren about even or ahead of Brown. [Council for a Livable World has endorsed and fundraised for Warren]
Michigan: Republicans scored solid gains in the state in 2010 and hope to strongly contest the seat of two-term incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D). She won her first re-election in 2006 with 57% of the vote. Early polling indicates that a close race could shape up, but the incumbent remains the favorite. Ex-Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) is running and will be a strong opponent, although he is being challenged by American Family Association MI president Gary Glenn (R) and charter school founder Clark Durant. Hoekstra got in trouble by running a very racist ad. [Council for a Livable World has endorsed and fundraised for Stabenow]
Minnesota: The state has been the scene of several close elections in recent years that have forced lengthy recounts. But first-term incumbent Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) won in 2006 by 20 points and she continues to be popular. June 2011 polling showed her with solid leads against several Republicans. She will be strongly favored. Her only challenger thus far is former state representative Dan Severson (R).
Mississippi: In this very conservative state, Sen. Roger Wicker (R), who was voted in during a 2008 special election to replace Sen. Trent Lott (R), should coast to re-election.
Missouri: Expect a close contest in this state evenly divided between the two major parties. President Obama lost Missouri by fewer than 4,000 votes out of 2.9 million cast. Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) ousted Sen. Jim Talent (R) by three percentage points. The GOP made major gains in 2010. Sarah Steelman (R), the former state treasurer, is running against Rep. Todd Akin (R) and businessman John Brunner (R) for the Republican nomination.
Montana: Sen. John Tester (D) upset an incumbent Republican Senator in 2006 by fewer than 4,000 votes and is a top Republican target in 2012. President Obama is very unpopular in the state. Six-term incumbent U.S. Rep. Denny Rehberg (R) is a very strong challenger. This is a toss-up contest. [Council for a Livable World has endorsed and fundraised for Tester]
Nebraska: Republicans think that the Cornhusker state provides them with one of their best chances for a pickup in 2012. Moderate incumbent Sen. Ben Nelson (D) was the only non-Republican in the delegation, but after appearing to run for re-election, decided to withdraw from the race in December 2011. Attorney General Jon Bruning (R) tossed his hat into the ring in December 2010; also running are former nominee Don Stenberg (R) and State Sen. Deb Fischer (R). For the Democrats, U of Nebraska regent Chuck Hassebrook (D) has entered the race.
Nevada: Sen. John Ensign (R), won two elections by large margins - but his ambition to be President evaporated when he admitted to an extramarital affair with his campaign treasurer who was also the wife of a staffer. On April 21, Ensign announced he would resign his seat early. The Governor appointed Rep. Dean Heller (R) as his replacement, but Heller faces a close contest with Rep. Shelley Berkley (D). Berkley has a primary challenger, businessman Barry Ellsworth (D). [Council for a Livable World has endorsed and fundraised for Berkley]
New Jersey: Sen. Robert Menendez (D) has so-so approval ratings and his state is mired in a recession. Still, the Republican bench in the state is not deep and the incumbent had $8.2 million in his campaign account at the end of December 2011.State Sen. Joe Kyrillos (R), who is close to Gov. Christie (R), will seek the GOP nomination, but Menendez remains favored.
New Mexico: Incumbent Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D), who has served in the Senate since 1982 and won his last election by 40 points, has decided to retire. In April 2011, Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) entered the contest, but he is being challenged by Auditor Hector Balderas (D). Former Rep. Heather Wilson (R) is the one major Republican in the race. A close race may be in the offing. [Council for a Livable World has endorsed and fundraised for Heinrich]
New York: The best chance to defeat appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) came in 2010, but she easily won the special election to replace Hillary Clinton and should have no problem in 2012. Nassau County comptroller George Maragos (R) will challenge her.
North Dakota: Republicans made major gains in the state in 2010, winning a Senate seat and the House seat. Incumbent Sen. Kent Conrad (D), who has held the seat since 1986, announced his retirement on January 18, 2011. On the Republican side, freshman U.S. Rep. Rick Berg (R) is running and is strongly favored, although he is being challenged by three-time candidate Duane Sand (R). Ex-North Dakota Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp (D) is running for the Democratic nomination. One poll showed Heitkamp ahead of Berg.
Ohio: The Buckeye State will again be contested closely at the presidential level and almost surely for Senate as well. In 2010, Republicans won the governorship, one U.S. Senate seat and five House seats. First-term incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) faces a strong challenge from State treasurer Josh Mandel (R). [Council for a Livable World has endorsed and fundraised for Brown]
Pennsylvania: This is another state where Republicans made major gains in 2010. However, first-term incumbent Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D), who beat incumbent Sen. Rick Santorum (R) by 18 percentage points in 2006, remains popular. Polls show Casey ahead of any potential GOP opponent. Venture capitalist and former House candidate Steve Welch (R), former state Rep. Sam Rohrer (R), ex-Santorum aide Marc Scaringi (R) and businessman Tom Smith (R) have entered the contest. Smith has self-funded to the tune of $5 million.[Council for a Livable World has endorsed and fundraised for Casey]
Rhode Island: If Democrats don’t do well here in 2012, then a nationwide Republican landslide is in order. First-term incumbent Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D) should win re-election, particularly because the GOP has a weak bench of candidates. Software company founder Barry Hinckley (R) appears to be the main challenger. [Council for a Livable World has endorsed and fundraised for Whitehouse]
Tennessee: The only significant challenge first-term incumbent Sen. Bob Corker (R) faces could come from a Tea Party opponent. Democrats in the state were wiped out in 2010. Corker won his first election against Harold Ford, Jr. by six points. A June 2011 Vanderbilt University poll showed Corker with a healthy 51%-23% approval rating.
Texas: Coming off a failed run against Rick Perry for the Republican nomination for governor, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) announced that she will not seek re-election. There are a whole slew of Senate hopefuls thus far that includes TX Railroad Commissioner, ex-solicitor general Ted Cruz (R), former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert (R), ESPN college football analyst Craig James and Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst (R). Public Policy Polling shows Lieutenant Governor Dewhurst far ahead of his primary opponents. Retired Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez (D) declared and then dropped out for the Democratic nomination.
Utah: After the defeat of Sen. Bob Bennett (R) in a Republican nominating convention in 2010, long-time Senator Orrin Hatch (R) is next on the Tea Party hit list. Hatch is working hard to prove that he is different than Bennett. Ex-state Sen. Dan Liljenquist (R) and State Rep. Chris Herrod (R) jumped into the contest in January 2012. The Utah GOP nominating convention is April 21; if any candidate secures 60% of the convention vote, there is no primary.
Vermont: There is one official Socialist in the U.S. Senate and his name is Sen. Bernard Sanders (I). Sanders, who won by 30 points in 2006, should coast to re-election. At this point, he has no challenger. [Council for a Livable World has endorsed and fundraised for Sanders]
Virginia: First-term Sen. Jim Webb (D), who upset Sen. George Allen (R), has announced he will not be the Democratic candidate for 2012. Allen, who was spoiling for a return to the Senate, has decided to have another go at it - but he is being challenged from the right by Jamie Radtke (R), head of the Virginia Tea Party Patriots Federation, and former U.S. Senate candidate Robert Marshall. Former Gov. Tim Kaine (D) is going to be the Democratic nominee. This is a toss-up race until November.[Council for a Livable World has endorsed and fundraised for Kaine.]
Washington: In 2010, Sen. Patty Murray (D) withstood the Republican tide, and there is no reason to believe that incumbent Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) will be seriously threatened. State Sen. Michael Baumgartner (R) is running and Bloomberg television anchor Phillip Yin (R) says he will challenge Cantwell.
West Virginia: Sen. Joe Manchin (D) won a special election in 2010 to replace the late Sen. Robert Byrd (D). Manchin was a highly popular governor, and won his Senate seat by 11 percentage points. Manchin should be okay in 2012. Businessman John Raese (R) will run for Senate for a fourth time.
Wisconsin: Democrat Russ Feingold was ousted in 2010 after three terms, and Republicans hope to capture the seat held by Sen. Herb Kohl (D), who announced in May 2011 that he will retire. Feingold is not running, but Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D) is. Former Rep. Mark Neumann (R) has also announced, and is likely to be the tea party champion against former governor Tommy Thompson (R). State Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald (R) also is running. This is a toss-up contest. [Council for a Livable World has endorsed and fundraised for Baldwin.]
Wyoming: If the Democratic Party in the state runs a candidate, hardly anyone will notice. Incumbent Sen. John Barrasso (R) won a special election in 2008 by 46 points and has a lock on re-election in 2012.
